Thursday 2 June 2016

Sell in May and walk away?

Today, 2 nd of June 2016, the S&P failed to breakthough the 2100 level. The Dow is down 600 points from its recent highs. What does this all mean?
My take is that the market has topped in the short term and this few percentage point reversal testifies to the inability of the market to break into all time new highs. Fears of a rate hike have once again grippled the market, leaving it confused and seemingly directionless. There is a lot of nerviousness and any negetive news ranging from geo politics to Fed matters will definately send the major indecies bac to correction territories. Just because i anticipate that does not mean it will happen tommorow, markets have a way of staying higher fir longer and suddenly moves lower in a short space of time. As an investor, i would not be will to get in at these very high leveks, in fact , i am short the market for the next few months until i see that 10% reversal. I generaly think we are at a stage were the market will experiance quite a number of corrections going forward. Remember since the 2008 crises, only a handful of corrections were recorded and now we are entering a stage were they will be prevelant due to heightened uncertainity.
The risk of a market crash is much higher now than ever befire. The Fed's unsustainable asset bubble it created can not be forever. Coporate profits are stalling, as expectations are being lowered every quater. Therefore seeing earning beats is a decieving situation, the reality is that expectations of the current earnings, three years ago, are way  below estimates. The markets are trading on borrowed time.
However, because investors have to put their money somewere to earn money, they are still invested, heavily. The belief that the Fed will support asset prices is the reason why the indecies are still mantaining their elevated prices.